Significant bear markets (SPX < 30%) are rare. However, the un-inversion of the 2Y vs 10Y Yield spread + rising unemployment, combined with the SPX crossing below its 4-Year cycle MA , should serve as a reliable indicator for identifying the continuation of a major drawdown.
...markets can go higher in the very short term but my X-mas tree theory tells me at some point we must return to at least 4117 (23Oct2023 low) which is -28% decline from present level and -31.38% down should it get up to 6,000 first.
...how much upside from here, after a +59.7% climb from that Oct22 low (the point from which the bull rally began)? Even if we could get to 7,000, that would just be another +22% gain- but if it were to do that, it would take a -41.19% plunge to return to 4,117! Go figure the risk-reward.
