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1ronnie

20,729 Posts.

1963

27/08/18

11:52

Post #: 35202266

Originally posted by 1ronnie ↑

Not a good day for Australian democracy and for the PM ...and there's bound to be more uncertainties in the week ahead, but while the major banks continue their decline, it was generally a positive day for the lower end of town and a great day for covered stocks - in particular 4DS, PME, NZK, PPS, A2M.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5

1 COVERAGE DATE STOCKS PRICE ON COVERAGE DATE PRICE @CLOSE GAIN%

2 20/8 NGI $ 5.810 $ 5.600 -3.6%

3 8/8 SFC $ 15.050 $ 17.280 14.8%

4 6/8 CGL $ 7.080 $ 7.340 3.7%

5 31/7 MYE $ 1.180 $ 1.460 23.7%

6 30/7 MP1 $ 4.370 $ 4.140 -5.3%

7 26/7 SKF $ 0.150 $ 0.180 20.0%

8 24/7 ZEN $ 1.060 $ 0.965 -9.0%

9 23/7 CXL $ 0.630 $ 0.825 31.0%

10 17/7 COE $ 0.445 $ 0.465 4.5%

11 13/7 SHL $ 26.500 $ 25.590 -3.4%

12 29/6 BYE $ 0.340 $ 0.300 -11.8%

13 28/6 ATC $ 0.195 $ 0.160 -17.9%

14 18/6 A2M $ 10.780 $ 10.820 0.4%

15 18/6 CGC $ 8.750 $ 8.740 -0.1%

16 14/6 NZK $ 2.240 $ 2.750 22.8%

17 4/6 BUB $ 0.830 $ 0.670 -19.3%

18 15/5 SW1 $ 0.410 $ 0.370 -9.8%

19 14/5 RHC $ 65.420 $ 57.720 -11.8%

20 9/5 FYI $ 0.145 $ 0.082 -43.4%

21 3/5 4DS $ 0.057 $ 0.115 101.8%

22 2/5 PME $ 8.150 $ 9.910 21.6%

23 1/5 TTT $ 1.540 $ 1.910 24.0%

24 30/4 CTD $ 24.880 $ 29.690 19.3%

25 18/4 CLV $ 1.030 $ 1.610 56.3%

26 18/4 VIV $ 0.054 $ 0.041 -24.1%

27 11/4 APX $ 8.820 $ 14.440 63.7%

28 11/4 BHP $ 29.440 $ 32.480 10.3%

29 11/4 PPS $ 0.595 $ 1.020 71.4%

30 11/4 PTB $ 0.545 $ 0.645 18.3%

31 Return @ 11.26% assuming @ $1k even per stock

A bad day for cautioned stock Connected IO (CIO). The company had to recapitalise with a CR at a heavily discounted price of 0.3 of a cent ($0.003) and the stock fell 50% to $0.004. This is precisely what I meant when people continue to cling on to a lost cause.
When CIO failed to answer satisfactorily ASX query (see article below), and fell through the 2.3c support, it was the final nail in the coffin - cut loss then, who would have thought you could save a whopping additional 82% loss.

See my post below:
Connected IO is still struggling to get its customers to go on record
April 13, 2018 | Rachel Williamson
Connected IO has issued its fourth suspension update in a matter of weeks as the wireless networking provider tries to get two US customers to agree to be publicly named.
Connected IO will at least be able to reveal one customer next week, saying last night that it had approval from the cybersecurity company to publicly reveal their partnership at an IT conference in San Francisco.
The US company (ASX:CIO) dropped two agreements in March saying it had signed “a major US telco” and a “US based cybersecurity company”.
On March 9, Connected IO (ASX:CIO) announced it had signed “a reseller agreement with a major United States telecommunications company with whom it has had a historic relationship and the disclosure of which is considered commercially sensitive at this time”.
On March 13, the group told investors it had received “a purchase order from a US based cyber security company… The purchase order is for an amount of $349,000 and confirms recurring revenues from this customer.”
However, in March the ASX changed continuous disclosure rules around material contract announcements to require that customers be named.
Connected IO (ASX:CIO) shares over the past year.
Connected IO’s company secretary Nicky Farley told * the crackdown came on the same day that they lobbed the first announcement to the market.
She says they took a suspension to work the matter out so they don’t put the two deals at risk.
Tightening rules
The ASX has been tightening its rules after the GetSwift (ASX:GSW) disclosure scandal, when the company allegedly failed to update the market twice when it lost material contracts and prematurely announced another.
The market operator now spells out specifically what companies need to say when they unveil material contracts.

Those details include the term of the contract, the nature of the product or service being sold, and, crucially, any conditions that need to be satisfied in order for the contract to be legally binding.
GetSwift told the market about an alleged contract with Commonwealth Bank, which the bank later said was just a trial and they didn’t formalise it once it finished.
Connected IO last traded at 2.8c.

And also this post
It seems that the ASX is at odds with the Dow’s more positive sentiment and seems to be inversely correlated with the Dow’s performance over the last week or two. And while last week good showing by tech microcaps seems encouraging, it is all beginning to look like a dead cat bounce.

Since Feb this year, I have consistently forewarned that the microcap/small cap end of town would like face a deflationary spiral after an exuberant performance over a half year period from July last year.

I also cautioned about stocks with ‘falling knives’ charts and indeed they go on to make new lows.
Blue Sky (BLA) hit a low of $2.19 on 7/5 and still languishing near lows although recovered today.
EDE hit all time low of 6.2c today and similarly AXP at all time low close of 10.5c both stocks I cautioned weeks back.
Yojee (YOJ) after bouncing to 15.5c last week closed at 13.5c today with its small cap advocate newsletter now putting a stop loss sell at 12.5c.
9SP is back close to its lows of 3.9c in a downward spiral chart.
BUD intra-day high of 16.5c last week was as good as it gets as it has now retraced back to 13.5c close.
When SHO broke its 12c support, it didn’t take long to drop as low as 9c and looking fragile despite a 10c close.
Similarly when M7T broke its 26c support, it quickly plunged to 21.5c (which also broke its other support at 22c).
All these stocks were featured in my falling knives post and should have been reduced or sell much earlier when technical were unfavourable. Other stocks like LVH, BRN, LVT, CT1, 3DP, CIO, FZO and FGO all appear to have similar sorts of chart formations. In short, brutal and much more than I had anticipated.

It may now be timely to question again the technology that underpins your stock. Does it really stack up? Trading on the hype (blockchain, AI, etc) is over, so before you just follow a theme and everyone flocks to trade them up. No longer. Blockchain will flourish yes but your block-chain stock need not necessarily stack up to be world class to get a seat in the global market.
The technology that underpins your stock may have a good value proposition but

How much traction will it get in the global market?

How unique is it to ward off global competition especially if it takes a long time to get traction? Otherwise it may become obsolete when others have greater and better offerings

How scalable is the technology? How wide or narrow a market can it reach?

How robust is its revenue model? Does one sale bring large revenue or you need many sale to generate material revenue?

What good margins can it get from each sale –how long does it take to be profitable?

How long does it take to close a sale?

Expand

Calix (CXL) came out this morning with a creditable result.
Highlights:

• Calix posts second consecutive year of >100% EBITDA growth

• The Company’s core products for wastewater treatment (ACTI-Mag) and corrosion protection (PROTECTA-Mag) products revenues grew 35% and gross margins grew from 30% to 35 %

• Calix today announces it has executed a third Material Transfer Agreement (MTA) covering testing and trials of the Company’s BOOSTER-MagTM crop protection product, with another major global crop protection corporation

• Low Emissions Intensity Lime and Cement (LEILAC) Project progress continues on time and budget

• The Industrial Transformation Training Centre for Future Energy Storage Technologies, of which Calix is an industrial partner, was recently awarded $4.38m by the Australian Resesarch Council

Revenues from core products were up 25% to $3.87m while it continued to enjoy grants and incentive income totalling $7.6m. Consequently EBITDA improved from $955k to $1.93m. Due to higher depreciation/amortisation/impairment expenses, Losses however increased to $3.34m from $2.14m. However, a deeper study into the financials would reveal that if you remove the once-off impairment cost for Leilac Belgium project of $2.916m, losses would have actually reduced to just $424k.
More importantly, cashflow from operations (including finance cost and forex losses but excluding non-cash depreciation/amortisation/impairment) improved from $517k to $1.329m.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5

0 COVERAGE DATE STOCKS PRICE ON COVERAGE DATE PRICE @MIDDAY GAIN%

1 20/8 NGI $ 5.810 $ 5.800 -0.2%

2 8/8 SFC $ 15.050 $ 17.280 14.8%

3 6/8 CGL $ 7.080 $ 7.320 3.4%

4 31/7 MYE $ 1.180 $ 1.380 16.9%

5 30/7 MP1 $ 4.370 $ 4.140 -5.3%

6 26/7 SKF $ 0.150 $ 0.190 26.7%

7 24/7 ZEN $ 1.060 $ 0.910 -14.2%

8 23/7 CXL $ 0.630 $ 0.830 31.7%

9 17/7 COE $ 0.445 $ 0.457 2.7%

10 13/7 SHL $ 26.500 $ 25.500 -3.8%

11 29/6 BYE $ 0.340 $ 0.295 -13.2%

12 28/6 ATC $ 0.195 $ 0.160 -17.9%

13 18/6 A2M $ 10.780 $ 11.000 2.0%

14 18/6 CGC $ 8.750 $ 7.320 -16.3%

15 14/6 NZK $ 2.240 $ 2.590 15.6%

16 4/6 BUB $ 0.830 $ 0.700 -15.7%

17 15/5 SW1 $ 0.410 $ 0.355 -13.4%

18 14/5 RHC $ 65.420 $ 57.050 -12.8%

19 9/5 FYI $ 0.145 $ 0.088 -39.3%

20 3/5 4DS $ 0.057 $ 0.120 110.5%

21 2/5 PME $ 8.150 $ 9.920 21.7%

22 1/5 TTT $ 1.540 $ 1.885 22.4%

23 30/4 CTD $ 24.880 $ 31.380 26.1%

24 18/4 CLV $ 1.030 $ 1.610 56.3%

25 18/4 VIV $ 0.054 $ 0.044 -18.5%

26 11/4 APX $ 8.820 $ 13.950 58.2%

27 11/4 BHP $ 29.440 $ 33.060 12.3%

28 11/4 PPS $ 0.595 $ 1.012 70.1%

29 11/4 PTB $ 0.545 $ 0.620 13.8%

30 Return @ 10.81% assuming @ $1k even per stock

0 Great analysis

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