BREAKING:
Europe There have been 33 major corporate debt defaults in Europe this year, far surpassing the Global Financial Crisis and falling just short of the number seen in 2020 due to Covid https://x.com/Barchart/status/1867786047876145297
Good Morning from Germany, where the benchmark index Dax has been a standout performer in Europe this year, climbing >20% for 2nd consecutive year. This strong market performance starkly contrasts the country's sluggish econ development, w/Germany lagging behind its European peers in growth and recovery. https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1867844518134820871
...yes, the madness of the crowds.
...you'd wonder if the wisdom of Jeremy Grantham is emulating the conservative folly of Hamish Douglass.
...Grantham is right in what he says but he has also been 'rightly wrong' with the market going bull rather than bear. And then you wonder if the new generation of investors never truly understood or rather never wanted to try understand fundamentals and as long as liquidity remains plentiful, the market's disconnect with the economy can remain persistently longer.
...for those reasons, I had been advocating not being a bull nor bear throughout the course. And that remains. Because the bull market is not what it seems.
...the reality is that fund managers can't afford not to track the market or underperform, so they must buy when the majority are doing so. And as long as more money is buying than selling, prices go up and emboldens more market participants. Even the most bearish Wall St analyst must back track and do a 360 U-turn to become bullish because he had been proven wrong for too long. But that does not necessarily mean we are on the eve of the Drunkenmiller mistake of getting in and throwing caution to the wind only to succumb to a calamitous crash not long after. Although we are nearing that time. It just means, at least in my books, that we should take a precautionary position, reduce our risk but at the same time re-calibrate our risk position to a better risk : reward proposition e.g if you have 60% of your position in equities that do nothing or instead move backwards with a limited time before the expiry of present bullishness, you won't improve your position.
Back then in BUD forum, hodlers didn't listened to me when I suggested they could have cut loss at -50% down and redeploy funds into better performing stock or asset class, they could have recovered part of their losses. Instead they remained in denial to the very end and lost everything. Many even averaged down and increasing their exposure to lose even more. And I see people doing that with their falling knive stocks. It is as if there is only one single stock to buy and invest, throwing all their money at it.
