According to S&P more than $2 trillion (!) of commercial real estate mortgages will mature over the next two years ('25 / '26). The average interest rate on maturing loans (underwritten in '20/'21) is only 4.3%. Good luck refinancing at TWICE that rate today.
And... roughly $200 billion of these mortgages are on office properties where the underlying value has collapsed.
Nobody is talking about this yet, but size of this pool of distressed capital is much larger than the subprime mortgage market at its peak in 2005 ($625 billion).
The "extend and pretend" game that occured in 2024 with the big banks will only make these problems much worse in 2025, because nobody will know where the toxic waste is buried. (Here's a hint: Bank of America.)
https://x.com/porterstansb/status/1867955318354747871
