There is a 40% chance that the Federal Reserve will pivot back...

There is a 40% chance that the Federal Reserve will pivot back to raising rates next year, warns Apollo Global Management

https://x.com/Barchart/status/1871072995172557004


Investor sentiment is shifting:
Expectations of a hard landing are at their lowest (6%), while no landing scenarios are gaining momentum (33%).

Soft landing still dominates at 60%.

https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1870902422031192122

....it is at 60% because market participants are engrossed in this narrative of 'American exceptionalism' under Trump; and it fails to impute the prospect of an event (and there are possible many events to choose from) that could change the course of trajectory of rates and the economy. To assume that there are no risks whatsoever of an event is being naively optimistic.

...it is not that the global economy is swinging from bad to better, it is on the brink in EU and China and in at least one half of US so it is more likely to be from moderately bad to possible worse and at best slightly less bad. That does not deserve a market running another 20+% higher next year.