Market probabilities of a US recession are rising: 5-year...

Market probabilities of a US recession are rising:

5-year Treasuries are now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November.

Furthermore, recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index spiked to 48% from just 1% in November.

At the same time, the S&P 500's odds of a downturn jumped to 22%.

Base metals also show a 52% probability of a recession.

On the other hand, investment grade and high-yield corporate bonds are pricing in just 8% and 5% chance, respectively.

Is a recession coming?

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1899918066156208263

..and remember a US recession means:

> banks, energy (oil, coal, lithium), base metals (copper, iron ore etc), travel stocks, tech stocks, gold stocks will all be crushed
> and market correction will not be the garden variety type (10%) but a bear market (>20% declines)
> risk of systemic event rises due to very elevated debt levels and significant counterparty default risks
> will be pervasive across the world, not isolated to the US
> no Govt stimulus this time, Trump 2.0 would be trying to use tax cuts to save America (except that most would hoard them if they still have a job rather than spend them)
> the US dollar may lose its safe have lustre in this coming recession, and Precious metals likely to be key beneficiaries