The article gives the bull case and the bear case leaving the reader more confused than ever. The sound advice comes at the end: "Sell down to the sleeping point". I agree.
However, the article for some reason left out the biggest risks to this market:
Massive over-valuation focused on a few Tech stocks that are now experiencing the largest rotation out of the U.S. in history.
The imploding AI trade.
Trump's tariffs effects on Emerging Markets.
Fed rates stuck at 20 year highs amid record global uncertainty.
Speculative unwind in Crypto, Momentum Tech and small caps.
Warnings from global bellwether stocks.
RECORD OVER-valuation.
We basically have a housing bubble, a Tech bubble and a Crypto bubble all at the same time.
We now have a Death Cross in all the major US Equity Indices with the Dow and SPX retesting the 200DMA from below which (so far) is acting as resistance. Quarter end 10 days away...
Everyone has an opinion, but sadly there is only one set of facts. The bull case is predicated upon a rotation out of mega caps into the broader market. But this week we got a small cap death cross deja vu of 2022. After which the broader market fell for another eight months. https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1903171270071427150
That's the week. This was the first up week in the past five weeks. Since the trade war started, the U.S. stock market has significantly underperformed Europe, Canada and China. Why? Because U.S. companies are the biggest beneficiary of free trade.
Ok, the REAL trade war is coming April 2nd. This was just chump change. https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1903175931465810138
TRUMP: THERE WILL BE FLEXIBILITY ON TARIFFS
And this was what turned the US market around, from a -400pts intraday drop on the Dow to close +31pts
Trump can inject some optimism or pessimism with a single tweet, he can control the direction
But he will still proceed with his April 2 'liberation day' tariffs or rather trade war provocation day.
The US market must surely sniff that US is already losing before winning- the backlash against US across the globe is beginning to worry American businesses.
Gold closed the week above $3 at $3,023, down $20 or -0.68%, AUD Gold at A$4821, GDX -1.46%, GDXJ -1.51%.
DXY finally caught a bid, rising to 104.15 , helped pushed AUD lower to 62.72c close reflecting Risk-Off.
