Most non-gold bugs are bullish on Gold but getting it very wrong.
Think normie investors and Wall Street types. They think Gold will have a blowoff move to $3500 or $4000 and then they can go back to the stock market.
Gold broke out from a 13-year base only 12 months ago. Gold just broke out from a 10-year base against the 60/40 Portfolio.
It's over for the stock market. You don't know it yet or can't admit it.
Gold is just getting started. And the above is why it's truly going to explode after the next pullback.
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Right.
I have rather negligible exposure to equities right now.
Can't have enough Gold but need to keep an option to be able to buy cheaper too if it comes to it
If equities recover and make new highs, I won't lose anything.
But if they melt down as I suspect it would in the months ahead, I won't lose either, maybe Gold could be a bigger surprise.
Avoid hurt to be able to be in the position to make the very best of cheaper opportunities ahead,
If you get hurt from the coming meltdown, you'd be too wounded to be able to make the most of those coming opportunities
Allow yourself to be -30% down from here, you'd need 42.85% to get back even, but if you left your cash ammo to buy in after the -30% downdraft, you'd be spared all the anxiety and be ahead 42.85% while that Buy and Hodler had to endure a rollercoaster ride to see himself coming out no better. And that is the best case scenario. In most likely case, your stock would be doing worse than the S&P500, it could lose -50% or more, and stay there for multi-years and even go bust. If you aren't involved, you could sit through it all and the world is your oyster to choose the most resilient stock that could survive the bust and selling at half the price that it was during the peak of the bull market.
And maybe in a few months, inaction is a lost opportunity and people hate to take losses, the default is to sit on them hoping for the turnaround, that never arrives. Because many paid too much for forward growth that was anticipated, that never arrived because economic and market circumstances changed.
Denial makes us want to believe that nothing has changed, and that we would get through it, as we have had.
People who look to the past to believe that we will always get through it, has not truly recognise that we are now living in very UNPRECEDENTED TIMES.
The rich stock market valuation does not provide me the risk premium to take that risk. We haven't reached the point where everyone is on the same page as me, if and when it does, the markets would be considerably lower than where we're at.
And I would admit, as I mentioned many times before, I am usually several months ahead in my assessment. And that is what being Ahead of the Curve is all about.
