US CapEx is coming to a halt:
The US CapEx intentions indicator dropped to -1.5 points in April, the lowest since 2020, according to BCA Research.
The indicator includes CapEx expectations from the NFIB small business survey and Fed regional surveys.
In the past, such a low level of this metric has rarely occurred outside of a recession.
This suggests a rapid slowdown in business investment and economic activity that could lead to a recession.
Corporations are in "wait and see" mode. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1917299057078460621
No hiring, no firing. The tale of a crazy labor market.
The hiring rate in construction is at all-time lows. The layoff rate in construction is near all-time lows. https://x.com/EPBResearch/status/1917240271143608668
I am not trying to draw comparisons between 2025 and 2008. No two crises are the same.
But just as a historical lesson. Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008.
Stocks rallied essentially uninterrupted all spring and summer long. And were +15% higher by the end of August 2008.
And then reality finally settled in. So even if the macro is rapidly deteriorating, it could take a lot of time for investors to get over their cognitive dissonance in the short term. https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1917319479052361857
