Its Over, page-26571

  1. 27,117 Posts.
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    The jump in consumers' year-ahead inflation expectations over the last three months in the Conference Board survey is as swift as the rise seen over the course of many months in 2020-21
    https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1917267816517972240

    WARNING: Retailers will soon have ONLY 7 weeks of inventory left due to U.S.-China Trade War, warns Port of L.A. executive director
    https://x.com/Barchart/status/1917414317806207346

    ...supply chain 'shock' courtesy of huge US tariffs on Chinese products is arriving in America in 2 months.

    CNN - “the Trump White House is negotiating with itself. China has NO interest in talking to Trump." *Bonds are speaking a FAR different narrative. FACT.
    https://x.com/Convertbond/status/1917396964045373750

    ...do you not think the Fed would stay pat on rates? Could there be even a chance that rates could go higher instead if anchored inflationary expectations leads to another round of Supply Chain shock 2.0?
    ...do you not think China would stay pat on delaying negotiations?
    ...almost every single day, both Trump/Bessent is crying out loud about China coming to the table and demanding lower rates because both know they do not have time on their side.
    ...the only option Trump 2.0 has is to unwind its tariff policy altogether but we know 'that's not going to happen', right?
    ...perhaps they need a nudge from both the bond and equity market to threaten implosion.
    ...they (Trump 2.0) have amazingly got themselves into the corner, in a way 'trapped' by their own dysfunctional policy making.


    "S&P500 still has plenty of room to fall if a recession is inevitable," per Bloomberg
    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1917216551213973942

    The sharpest U.S. stock market selloff since the height of the COVID-19 crisis has left equities looking relatively inexpensive. But if a recession is looming—driven by a deepening global trade war triggered by President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs—what counts as "cheap" may be a moving target.
    “What are you doing to me, Trump? We’re all flying blind here as recession risks climb,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors, which currently holds a neutral stance on U.S. stocks.

    Historically, in the run-up to recessions, the S&P 500’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio tends to fall to an average of 15.6, according to data from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA and a recognized authority on market history. Even after the recent drop, the S&P’s P/E ratio sits at 23—suggesting there may still be significant downside ahead.

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added to concerns Friday, warning that the economic fallout from Trump’s new tariff measures could be far worse than anticipated. The Fed now faces the tough challenge of balancing inflationary pressures and potential job losses, both of which could be exacerbated by the trade crackdown.

    “Trump is going to leave us all disappointed, and he’s not going to be the one to fix this,” said Phillips. “Stocks will keep sliding until there’s meaningful intervention from the Fed or Congress—but we’re not betting on that anytime soon.”

    Friday’s strong March jobs report may prove to be the “final act” of the so-called “Goldilocks economy,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Securities. He noted the data preceded the full economic blowback from the tariffs and warned the central bank is now unlikely to cut rates in May.

    Signs of a slowdown are already emerging. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker estimates a 2.8% contraction in real GDP for Q1, making the Trump administration’s longstanding goal of 3% annual growth increasingly unlikely. GDP has topped 2% in nine of the last ten quarters through the end of 2024.

    If the U.S. slips into a recession, global economies will likely follow, undercutting corporate earnings potential from overseas markets. Analyst expectations for 2025 S&P 500 earnings growth have been steadily revised downward—from nearly 13% at the beginning of the year to just 9.4% now, per Bloomberg Intelligence.

    Since World War II, recessions have accompanied nine bear markets, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 35%. That’s deeper than the 28% average decline in the five bear markets not linked to a recession, according to CFRA data.

    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1917451095833731518

    ...whose interests do you think Fed Powell would be serving?

    ...the Presidents? Absolutely Not.
    ...its Bank Members? Absolutely Yes
    ...the USA? Yes in so far as it affects its bank members, directly or indirectly

    The Fed is not going all out to stop a recession, especially if it is a result of actions undertaken by the President. But it would want to be in the position to stop any resulting recession from affecting financial instability - so he would want to preserve as much of whatever monetary ammo he has to be ready for the task. He is not going to sacrifice/compromise his monetary bullets in the absence of systemic risk just to support the market and make the President happy.
 
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