...you can see how low the PEs get to when we have a US recession
...you can also see that the intervals between bear market occurrences have narrowed, i.e we are getting more frequent bear markets than in the past, reflecting increasing turbulence in the overall market environment.
...going forwards, even if we do not get a bad bear market or a large crash, we will likely get a market having to navigate a choppier sea of volatility. Not a great market environment for retirees or soon to retired people who can't afford to make negative returns in the time they have left.
This table below shows an update of all bear markets and serious corrections over the past 150 years. I wouldn’t call the current 21.5% drawdown a bear market just yet, since we have had these abrupt mini bears in the past that did not turn into a recession or typical bear market cycle. So, we will see. In any case, non-recession bears have tended to be swift and short and produced a drawdown of 22% over 4 months, much like we have just done.
