RECESSION RISK SURGES AS GDP CONTRACTS
Kalshi now shows a 74% chance of a U.S. recession this year, spiking after this morning’s surprise GDP print:
Q1 GDP: -0.3% vs. +0.3%
expected Core PCE: +3.5%
Employment Costs: +0.9% (in line)
Consumer Spending: +1.8% annualized
Markets are reacting sharply — stocks are down and hitting session lows:
S&P 500 E-minis: -1.08% Nasdaq 100 E-minis: -1.43 Dow E-minis: -0.80%
