..if you followed this thread long enough, you would have heard me talk about the X-mas tree formation (a rise from base to peak followed by a retracement back to the base where it started- a triangular pattern)
..now look at this QQQ chart below, you can see a similar pattern formation to the 2021-22 bear market. Now we are at the first top X-mas tree with a bear rally to end soon to return to where it started in early April 2025. Then in the months ahead, we are likely to see an evolving bigger X-mas tree formation to at least end at levels last seen in Oct 2023- this bigger X-mas tree is likely to materialise once we have further evidence that US economy is sinking into a recession.
..a sign that bulls should seriously take note, there are material risks ahead:
1. 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs would end sometime in July
2. US-China trade war is likely more protracted than the market is factoring
3. The Fed is not relenting on rate cuts to the extent that the market is factoring
4. US economy could face a triple problem of increasing unemployment, increasing inflation and widening deficits
5. Substantial US Treasuries due to mature over the coming months
6. Sectoral/industry challenges looms ahead after several months once tariffs are in full operation
$QQQ back on April 4th at $422 I posted a rebound that would take us to $485-$490. This morning's high so far was $483.89. Don't look where I think this ends up going once this rally terminates.
$QQQ potential symmetry could form like the last bear market. Doesn't mean we follow it of course but worth considering. Notice I think we have a lot lower before this is all over. And I think March of next year could be even lower than what's displayed here ending in Oct https://x.com/Reformed_Trader/status/1917938245184196670
