...Dow is now up +0.81% the past month after chalking a +564pt rise overnight, the entire April nightmare overturned.
...But Oil is telling us a different picture, it is trading as if recession is at the door, Crude WTI sank -16.47% the past month
...Dr Copper likewise is down -4.26% the past month
We are living through history. Only 0.25% of the time in the past century has the S&P 500 managed to rise nine consecutive days.
A 1-in-400 or 3 sigma event!
Guess what? Fully 80% of the time this dynamic happened in recessionary environments … not to mention just ahead of the October 1987 crash! Maybe this “bullish” (manic) move isn’t so “bullish” after all!
*MIRAN: WOULD BE SURPRISED IF TARIFFS DON'T CHANGE IN FEW WEEKS At the end, we’re going to get a complete pause to all these tariffs right before the shelves get empty. All of this will be for not. Uncertainty for the sake of uncertainty. Volatility for the sake of volatility. Zero gained. An utterly pointless exercise. https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1918292441725129163
Japan negotiators have firmly opposed US proposal, per Nikkei.
If we don't get a deal with China soon, we are heading for an apocalyptic market and economy it's as simple as that. The probability of a deal may be ~20% with say 10% upside to stocks = +2% probable gain. The probability of no deal is 80% with -50% downside to stocks = -40% probable loss. Position accordingly. https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1918350853443866667
> I think the US market is positioning that the tariffs won't materialise or at least not in a material way to harm the economy
> And market is holding onto prospect that the Fed will cut without economy sinking into a recession
> In other words, the 'good' news have been factored in
> And at some point, Trump will need to drop its tariff against China very materially
So far the market is behaving as if it was the first Scenario of April being all a giant nightmare, all self inflicted and totally unnecessary.
But the only certainty about Trump is unpredictability, so expect to be Blindsided all over again.
We are entering the May month, so Sell in May and Go Away may be apt given an extreme overbought position now.
THE STOCK MARKET HAS NOW BEEN UP 9 DAYS IN A ROW NOW FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 20 YEARS
TRUMP SAID THIS WAS BIDEN’S STOCK MARKET LAST WEEK SO THANK YOU BIDEN I GUESS ???? https://x.com/gurgavin/status/1918401536142561789
