..I can't see any major breakthrough in the US-China trade impasse.
..the only I can see would be for China to allow for sale of TikTok to pass into US hands in exchange for a total drop in all post-Liberation Day declared additional tariffs between the two countries.
..it is meaningless for a trade deal resolution to end with a lower tariff of say 50% (like the President intimated), with no restoration of trade relations between the two countries. I think China has resolved to 'economically divorced' the US but given them a chance to unwind all tariffs to help its export businesses a short term breather and demonstrate leadership. It won't be the US dictating terms the way they did in Trump 1.0, and likely that Trump 2.0 negotiation will begin where Trump 1.0 left, in that China did not fulfill its part of its obligations, disrupted by Covid that followed.
..so while US futures have got ahead of themselves, the narratives coming out of China isn't one of yielding and desperate for a deal.
THERE IS NO GRAND TRADE DEAL COMING
FOMO has already pushed the S&P 500 to its level before tariffs were announced. Those tariffs, and retaliatory ones, will gradually be taken down, one "trade deal," corporate donation, $TRUMP coin, and foreign development concession at a time.
