Container shipping volumes are PLUMMETING: Containerships expected at Southern California ports have fallen sharply in the last few weeks. Containers from China to the US have dropped 60% since April 9, according to Flexport. The logistics industry is set to feel some pain. https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1920169258010456375
...today Trump is set to announce his 'big and hairy' trade deal with the United Kingdom, which the US has a $11.9B (2024) trade surplus with.
...so there is no trade imbalance to begin with, as it is in US favour
...and US tariff levy on UK is just 10%!
...rather, UK is likely helping the US buy time to help Trump appease the market and public
...India would be next but it is hard to see a $45.7B trade deficit with India to be easily narrowed; India sells jewelry and ornaments and exports sizeable amount of cheap pharma to US, which US depends on, but which Trump wants to apply tariffs on pharma products, while India could concede on buying more US jets, allow access of Tesla vehicles and Elon's Starlink, the point is that they could be deals but not necessarily having the ability to close trade deficit.
..this is why there is nothing coherent in Trump 2.0 trade/tariff policy
> It is not a re-alignment of tariffs, Vietnam only has about 5pc average tariff on US goods but was slapped with 46pc reciprocal tariff that is now on 90day pause.
> It is not entirely a meaningful narrowing of trade deficits
> It is not capable of raising meaningful tariff revenues
So WHAT IS IT?
I don't think the Trump administration knows exactly, it could be all or any of the above, but more like whatever 'we can extract' from them, including deals that could be beneficial like buying more US jets, providing property development access to Trump Organisation (Vietnam), procuring nation to buy/invest in Trump meme coins in multi-millions (one Middle Eastern country), possible access/invitation to the Commonwealth (UK).
Carney (Canada) offered nothing of such kind, keen to agree along trade lines per se and seemingly isn't getting any deal. Likewise, Japan was rejected of request for exemption, in particular its most sensitive car industry, as it offered nothing.
IMO EU and China would follow similar pathways as Canada and Japan and therefore end in protracted negotiations that could last months. Well beyond 90 days. So after 90 days expires, it will likely be extended, and Trump will say that US don't need the deals, and other countries will reach out to them instead if they want to, and if not, a minimum tariff rate of perhaps 10-20% will apply.
At the end of it, US and Trump Org could end up with a few big deals, most likely with Middle East and India that would be claimed as 'success', with several billions in the bag for the insiders and a tariff level at no unreasonable level many months after leaving US and global importers and exporters in limbo and financial/business strife with no good reason and a compromised US economy that is already fragile on the pretext of regaining 'fairness' and 'winning' for the US.
Meanwhile many thousands of businesses, especially small and medium across the US, China and globally suffer from the uncertainty and paralysis in trade and investments, necessitating layoffs and possibly bankruptcy, while waiting on the President and his crew to conclude their "deals".
Sure, they're looking out for the little guys, i.e Main Street they say. The affected ones will say its BS, but the majority of them have little idea, when recession hits Main St, it will surely be Biden's fault.
