BREAKING: Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang says any deal to be reached will be "in China's development interest." It is unclear why Chinese officials are speaking about deals "to be reached" while the US announces a deal has already been reached.
A “deal” to start negotiations …right.
BREAKING: A Wall Street executive with ties to the White House says tomorrow's "trade announcement" between the US and China is not at the UK-level in terms of a rough framework, per Fox Business' Gasparino.
"U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva" Probably the most misleading headline I've seen so far, and this is coming from the White House. Why lie about this during Options Expiration (OpEx) week? The only explanation is pumping markets so the big boys can get out.
IF there's a rally - short of full de-escalation - this will very likely be the last chance to get out. Represented by every bullish pundit as the last chance to get in https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1921668945615925260
We are told that two full days of trade talks between China and the U.S. yielded "substantial progress", with details to follow on Monday. Whatever reaction we see in the overnight futures I would ignore as it could be reversed instantly when the details are released. The most salient point of course will be the agreed upon tariff level for both sides which we can assume will remain in place for the foreseeable future, because the actual implementation details for addressing the trade balance will unfold in the ensuing months and years. Therefore whatever optimism takes place initially won't last UNLESS the tariff level is reduced back to the pre-Liberation Day level. Which I suggest is a low probability. Here is my model for understanding the potential market outcomes. Probabilities are mine. https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1921664884309217570
...make what you will on the representations on what unfolded by both parties, but this is clear - neither side budged on tariff levels and this is what the markets are fixated on and hoped for.
...the WH clearly has no respect for the word 'misrepresentation' by announcing a trade deal when there is no deal to speak of.
..the only 'deal' it had over the weekend was this which it unashamedly announced. What it did not announce however was what was the quid pro go?
BREAKING: President Trump is poised to accept a luxury jet costing $400 million as a gift from Qatar, per ABC It’s to be used as Air Force One and then transferred to the Trump library by January 2029. https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1921609464198696979
