"As I predicted in the game of chicken between Trump and Xi it was Trump to blink and chicken out. The tit for tat trade war escalation started by the US would have spiked US inflation, led to massive supply chain disruptions and would have triggered a serious US and global recession that would have doomed the GOP and the MAGA grand goals by the 2026 mid term elections . So Trump had no choice but to blink while receiving almost no concessions from the Chinese side, not even an agreement like the one in 2019 to buy more US goods such as ag goods. Such modest concessions may emerge during the 90 day period where negotiations will take place to “reset” trade but so far Xi is the clear winner of this trade war ."
...if you have lost money, if it is any consolation, you are not alone. Even Hedge Funds got wrecked, betting the wrong way.
BREAKING: Hedge Funds Hedge Funds were long volatility, short U.S. Dollar, short equities, and short Bitcoin $BTC before the U.S.-China trade agreement was announced https://x.com/Barchart/status/1922128664193278306
...there is an almost certainty that there is
a. No rationality in this market whatsoever (pretty much like Q4 of 2019 before the 2020 crash)
b. You can't play this market because all we get is getting Blindsided because there is no clear game plan in what Trump 2.0 is trying to achieve with its tariff policy, and flip-flops engineered to manipulate the markets in insiders favour.
...it is easy to resolve that it is better to do nothing and stay pat, in hindsight. Except that, you may think the worse is behind us, it is not, it is ahead but it does not mean that we can't have an irrational Melt-Up first that becomes the precursor to the eventual larger crash.
...FWIW, a +0.5% gain on our XJO is an expression of skepticism about the overnight Wall St euphoria. Suffice to say we are more measured lot.
