The trade end game is an increase in minimum tariffs far above the prior 3% effective tariff. The weaker dollar, weakening consumer and global nature of tariffs suggest it will largely be paid by companies. That's a profit hit of a few hundred billion. https://x.com/FedGuy12/status/1921889135133970827
...someone in the US would have to pay for it. If it is not the US consumer, then it would be the US company.
...if it is the US consumer, then CPI would rise in the months ahead, and that further delays any Fed rate cut
...if it is the US company, then their profits would be compromised, which may result in lower share price and possibly more layoffs
...and meanwhile because of tariff uncertainty on re-igniting inflation, the Fed pause a rate cut which would have had otherwise possibly materialised in the absence of that tariff policy
...Trump's tariff policy is not only inherently bad in generating these outcomes, it also will fail in generating any meaningful revenues to address its trade deficits and widening debt levels nor bring in additional manufacturing jobs net of job losses already happening because of the self-inflicted uncertainties onboarded by the tariff policies/trade war.
