Yes last time the 30Y breached 5% (Oct ‘23), it followed a blow-off top. Equities had already ripped on AI/soft landing euphoria, but as yields surged, positioning reversed violently. The S&P cracked ~10% within weeks. So if we’re headed back above 5% now… we may be walking into the same trap just with thinner liquidity and weaker buyers. https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1922818110949613584
...30yr yields rose from 4.29pc on Aug 21 2023 to 5.08pc peak on Oct 16 2023, that coincided with the decline in the S&P500 from 4,405 (Aug 21) to 4,224 (Oct 16) before bottoming at 4,117 on Oct 23 2023, a contraction of -6.5%. But since Oct 16 2023, 30yr yields peaked and began to move lower, stock market bull began from there.
...now the market just got off from exuberance over the US-China trade truce, and barely noticing or give an F over rising longer term yields, and rising alongside rising yields. Complacency reign supreme, reality check will soon catch up if yields continue rising unabatedly.
