The combined ISMs have swung from 52.9 a year ago to 51.2 in April to 49.7 in May. With all due deference to the Atlanta Fed, the historical record shows that a combined index at the May level coincided with negative QoQ real GDP growth readings 80% of the time (with the average nearly -1% at an annual rate and the median at -1.3%). Let me be even more specific:
Barely more than 5% of the time historically was the economy still in official expansion when this index dipped below that critical 50 threshold.
