...yes, a long way (climb) since the GFC lows of 2008-9.
...there have been stocks that have done exceptionally well and reflected in the indices, and there have been many other smaller stocks that have been dead and buried and forgotten.
...in any crash, everything falls, the former group of stocks will see hodlers losing substantially the superb returns they made but didn't realise and as for the latter group of stocks, hodlers are already drowned >-50-70% down, what is another -30% drop.
...this year's blindsiding market has made us de-sensitised towards fear of bear market train wreck so the next time when market adversity returns, it will persuade us to do nothing or even BTD. The time to realise good profits is when the market is brim with confidence but for the most of us, we'll wait for the next signal of a downward move, because of FOMO in us.
...Buy and Hodlers would want to hold them like a business ala Buffett, not recognising though that first, we only have a handful of listed businesses on ASX that have strong moat to invest lucratively for the long term and second, for the most of these group of businesses, their share valuations are already well over the top. Instead, Buy and Hodlers should learn the lessons of CHN, PLS, LTR, WHC, WDS and many more that not taking strong profits is never a wise move, however solid you think their businesses are. I have warned in this thread for so long on BHP, WDS, WHC, LTR, PLS and lithium stocks, understand the cyclicality of their businesses. There is nothing magical nor brave nor clever about not taking a 600% return in under 2 years to end up holding for 4-5 years with total returns diminished to just 20-30% or even less. Buy and Hold has limitations - holding for longer is not to be equated with necessarily better or higher returns with time. Especially not for stocks in cyclical sectors facing macro headwinds and/or under siege.
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People will understand why the crash after it has already happened. $SPX rallied 800% in 16 years. That's average more than 50% each year. But no one believed there was a bubble in it before the crash. https://x.com/SwingTraderQ/status/1931394410950131729
