Oil prices are rising sharply after Israel's strike on Iran, with Brent crude hitting $78.50 a barrel — the highest since January. Here's how the situation could affect the market:
Forget sub-$60 oil this year, says Tom Holland of Gavekal Research, calling Israel’s attack "aggressive and preemptive."
Prices are likely to stay high due to the risk of further strikes on oil infrastructure.
Holland sees Brent averaging $67.50–$70 in the second half of 2025.
A major risk is the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for 25% of global oil and 20% of LNG shipments, notes Capital Economics.
A serious disruption there could drive oil to $120 a barrel, warns ING’s Warren Patterson.
OPEC might boost production if supply is disrupted, but broader regional conflict would limit its ability to stabilize markets.
