...the surprising part is that markets have not over-reacted to the Israel-Iran war so far, US futures in fact in the green now, albeit just after moving higher earlier.
...markets may not be as much negatively impacted by an event if the event does not lead to adverse economic outlook having negative bearing on earnings.
...but let us remember that S&P500 performance can be more robust due to resilience of Mag7 earnings and does not reflect the average stock performance which can be decimated by these events. As you can see US small caps have had negative returns so far.
By Lance Roberts “Yes, there were a few periods that led to more disastrous outcomes, such as the Yom Kippur War, the oil embargo, the USS Cole bombing, 9/11, and the London Subway bombing. However, those events coincided with the bursting of the “Nifty-50” bubble, the “Dot.com” bubble, and the “Financial Crisis.” While there is undoubtedly a risk that the current Iran-Israel conflict could spiral into something larger, history suggests those odds are relatively low and that over the next 12 months, any near-term impact will likely produce investment opportunities.”
A Closer Look at Global Equity Performance
As of June 13, 2025 the Hang Seng Index has returned 19.3%—the strongest returns across leading global equity markets.
