..US market continued its Melt-Up with Dow gaining +404pts and S&P500 closing +0.80% at 6141 and within 5 points away from returning to its all time high while Nasdaq was up +0.97% to 20,167.
..market shrugged the GDP contraction; instead I believe this along with Trump's imminent appointment of a shadow waiting-in-line Fed chief to replace Powell signals a more bullish rate cut era for the market.
..Trump may be right about interest rate cuts being too late and his eventual replacement of Mr Too Late (Powell) may just be that- too late.
..it has to be a Melt-Up complacency market to happen first before the market takes a plunge when it is awakened to the deteriorating economic contraction.
BREAKING: US Q1 2025 GDP was revised down by 0.3 percentage points, to -0.5%, confirming the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2022.
Personal consumption was revised lower by 0.7 percentage points, to +0.5%, making this the weakest quarter since the 2020 pandemic.
This also marked the second downward revision after the -0.5 percentage point revision on May 29th.
As a result, consumer spending contributed just 0.31% to the GDP print, down from 1.21% in Q4 2024.
Tariffs are not working. The U.S. trade deficit in goods surged to $96.6 billion in May, up 11% from April and 6.5% above expectations. Most problematic was the 5.2% decline in exports. Trump’s goal to reduce trade deficits while expanding markets for U.S. exports has backfired. https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1938216338217931010
..sounds like after the 'Middle East peace victory' and 'NATO defence spending victory' Trump has eased off on his tariff threats and paying less focus on it. Markets could also interpret it as his waning desire to push strongly on that front.
WHITE HOUSE SIGNALS JULY 9 TRADE DEADLINE MAY BE EXTENDED White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the July 9 trade deadline is flexible and could be extended. President Trump may impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that don’t reach deals by then but could also offer terms unilaterally. So far, only a deal with the UK and a truce with China have been reached, with other talks ongoing. https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1938295975862321639
