I indicated that USA was going down the path of Italy in regards to the virus contagion two weeks ago. And when the market realises this, it was going to turn lower until we see that plateau forming. With 200k cases in the USA, daily deaths seem to be getting higher each day, the news is sobering. Now Mike Pence is confessing to this dark reality, sadly it didnt need to come to this if the USA had better leadership.
Domestically, NSW Premier Gladys declared 90 days social distancing rules. Victoria declared Level 3 without stipulating timelines for its end.
And I stated too that I'd expect moves to be initiated from the State Govts, not the Federal as the latter remains preoccupied with their economic fallout concerns.
Expect to see schools shut policy to proceed soon as State Govts likely to veto the Federal again, if cases do not get better.
If we do not shut everything down completely for a month to completely isolate anyone who has the virus and carry out effective enforcement, the virus could still remain with us months down the road as we start relaxing social distancing. The half baked measures adopted by US and Australia only ensures that economic decline is protracted and WFH may need to remain far longer. As long as there are still cases out there, you cannot expect everyone to start going to shops like they used to before the crisis and the economy will not bounce back as quickly as is hoped- full shutdown allows the virus remaining with anyone to fizzle out with that person after a month. Then we stage a progressive open and gauge the outcome. The failure of politicians to listen to their epidemiologists is the problem thinking that somehow we can properly balance health against economy.
And this post below is worthy of being repeated for those who missed it.
Washington: US Vice President Mike Pence said the White House's models for the coronavirus pandemic show the country on a trajectory akin to hard-hit Italy.
Speaking to CNN, Pence said: "We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point."
