Its Over, page-315

Hi JC
I heard of this company through Equity Story which favours it but I didn't look into it after it came into ASX, but now it will be on my watch list after you brought to my attention, thanks.
Serko is a travel management application solution business , so if I had CTD in my list, SKO ought to be there too.

Good points:-
* Globally scalable- best point & most exciting (now only in Australasia & moving into Northern Hemisphere)
* Good growing recurring revenue base @ $18m
* Transaction volumes trend increasing
* EBITDA & P&L positive
* Operating expenses under control

Not so good (but not bad) points:-
* Valuation high @ mcap $253m @ PE of 138x
* Uninspiring or conservative forward guidance of flat EBITDA but reasonable 20-30% revenue growth
* Low margin business - so depends largely on success of global adoption

So while I like it, I think for it to grow its market cap even higher, it needs to show traction with global adoption of its application platform. Until then, its sp has already moved higher 15% in a short space of time and the good bits may have already been baked into its premium price. But because liquidity is not high, some people may well buy into limited supply and in the process jack prices up for FOMO to happen in the short term.

However, I believe that we have within 24 months before the arrival of any crisis or recession bigger than the previous one, and travel expenses would normally be curbed in the corporate sector, so this industry would be impacted. Question then is can SKO achieve the global adoption and grow rapidly within that timeframe?