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paul_d

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30/04/20

20:52

Post #: 44366099
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Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑

Futures a bit subdued at the moment, a little unusual for this time of the day. With Facebook 9% higher on futures, monsters of tech may well deliver again , then Amazon will warm things up if the day doesn't deliver. But after that, surely rather overbought and ASX market participants probably not going to hold on when the bell rings for close tomorrow.

Just when we think short positions ought to be covered and get into longs, we typically see markets react in the entire opposite. As far as exposure is concerned, probably best IMO to do nothing when the long short positions are already well calibrated. If the short positions get underwater as markets get even more disconnected, well got to treat it as an insurance premium and may (more like "will" rather than "may") well deliver further down the track.

You can see disconnected markets now as APT is 9% higher than it was 6 months ago - higher (price) for less (worse fundamentals), go figure....

Just wondering how prepared market participants are willing to hold to their purchases this week if we see a sudden downturn emerging (maybe tomorrow night). The fear is still there (because conviction remains weak- its too good to be true but I am not missing this one ), they are only emboldened incrementally so once we get a turn , the exodus may well begin unraveling the large rise we got this week and this month. This is why bear suckers rally can be pretty treacherous as it plays with emotion.

....but then perhaps dreams can come true and markets don't need to own up to the carnage that is unfolding in the economy. For awhile at least. We can wish.

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Couldn't agree more
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0 Great analysis

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