I'm amazed that this bear market rally has gone on so long. I'm still not convinced by it.
There will be a 2nd wave, obviously. The way this virus has spread points to it. (It's now suspected that it was in France in December I think I heard) Especially in the U.S. a big 2nd wave. IMO people will either be too afraid to go out and spend money, or they will go out and catch it and then the official number of infected over there will be in the tens of millions. Meaning that the real number of infected by that stage will be probably 100 million. I saw an interview with the New York Governor who said he can't understand how two thirds of their new hospitalisations are people who have been staying home.
I know that the share market and the economy are two different things and that one doesn't necessarily predict the other, but are we missing something here? Or are that many people who are willing to buy stocks at these prices, especially U.S stocks, in the belief that they will continue to climb? Who is wrong here?
I have also missed out on some of the rally as I have been protecting my holdings (mostly developed countries ETF's which I've had for quite awhile) with shorting ETF's. I've got to say though it doesn't bother me as the rally seems ridiculous. But hey, if it continues rising then the BULLS are right I guess.
