My apologies for the length of this message. I had some idea the drop in the SPDR SPY may be related to redemptions and fund selling but didnt have enough access to the data required to make that call, I agree with you regards the BEAR ETFs, time erosion of their value has put me off using these. Having said that the best low risk way to make money from these, seems to be shorting Bear ETFs when we are in sustainable rally or bull market, thus taking advantage of their time erosion. Whilst I havent participated in this activity myself, as I think this is a bear rally, I see its merit when we finally turn the corner into a sustainable economic recovery or equities bull market.
With respect to gold, I have had success holding Gold long term. I am currently using it as a hedge and recently read about the silver gold ratio being used as an indicator of a change in sentiment/direction, however I need to do more research to understand this better, is this something you could give us your thoughts on?. (Not a huge fan of candle charts as indicators, maybe I dont understand them well enough). Regards the relationship between Gold price and movements in USD maybe the level of volatility in the markets (ie traders with heightened emotions) is also throwing these out of sync. I have also read that during the lock down sports betters stated seeking returns from the markets because they could not bet on any sports events. This would explain the non sensical fluctuations in the markets to some degree.
It would be great to know if you follow any economists/investors/traders in particular, I have been following Nassim Taleb and Mohammed El Erian (both of which still consult to investment firms and hedge funds so I am careful to remember they have Biases/conflicts of interest, (please be aware Talebs colourful language, he is smart regardless).
I like the use of probability alongside fundamentals as a strategy but find it really difficult to get data, I dont even mind raw data that I can use to create my own charts etc but again it would be great to have an individual piece of software, platform to get the data from in the first place, or use to create the charts etc, rather than waiting for data to be released to the general public from a variety of different websites (even some Government produced economic data is sold to fundmanagers etc upto 3 minutes before its release to the general public). What have you found to be your best source of data to be regards any software or platforms you have used (Bloomberg as far as I know costs more than $23k per year, I dont have the budget for this).
Also I would really like to use hedged options and have access to the international markets, however I am finding it difficult to find a good provider of these in Australia (dont have $100K to trade with). I also prefer American options to European. May I ask which provider you are using for this?
I will completely understand if I have asked you for too much, I will not be offended if you cant answer all my questions.
