And if you had reacted to overnight's Dow gain and feeling a little more optimistic, you could have sold BBOZ at the open at $8.51 , except it is now $8.75 as the XJO is turning lower. And the Dow is a little over a 100pts down, what would that come to later?
Anything but easy to trade and determine accurately the day to day market movements.
We try to be clever anticipating....the market these days come down to a cat and mouse game. If it was purely fundamentals, you dont have to second guess like this, if earnings outlook look rosy, we see a consistent up and vice versa if things dont look positive, it goes lower and stay lower. Everyone knew the score and buy and sell accordingly , like it was in 2H of 2017 to Feb18 before the market first corrected in a big way...and like 1H of 2019 before the yield curve inverted. All the inconsistencies and poor market depth began after the trade war escalation, from then, volatility spiked both ways. Volatility spike is great for traders I hear you but lets be honest it is only great if you are on the right side of trade. Trading is nothing more than placing a sports bet on a Federer Novak tennis match but that is not investing.
The reality is no one has clear clarity where the end point with this COVID19 , its impact on earnings and how it can continue to derail economies when global aviation cannot return to normalcy anytime soon. Take FLT, opened at $14.49 and now trading 5.5% below its open, market may like to trade its volatility and may have chosen the beaten down stocks hopeful for an uptick on the re-opening of the economy, but global aviation is not returning .... who is flying? With Covid , higher ticket and accommodation prices and a recession, cyclical stocks are to be avoided.
Both macro and micro are not positive. The macro environment i.e economy, geopolitics, election are all negative and while markets look ahead, at best the jury is out and the markets could be prematurely optimistic. The micro aspects i.e corporate earnings, inconsistent price action, volatility, market behaviour, are also negative by my reckoning. Two negatives = sideline. We are exactly the same spot where we were in Nov-Dec, we may have a little more to run but when the Portnoys and his camp start to lose money, watch out ,....when the cult leader goes down , the rest follows and we have a stampede on our hands.
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