Its Over, page-7706

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    Charts are way too slow to tell you what's coming. They are somewhat Behind the Curve because they need affirmation and confirmation. But they can be a useful guide to tell you what people have been doing in terms of buy/sell and because they are referred to for buying/selling/holding decisions, a poor chart is likely to lead to more selling and a good chart to more buying.

    I have followed Ira Epstein, he couldn't tell that gold was on the way down, but Slim did weeks ago. Slim is definitive . Ciovacco is ever bullish but interesting from a market history perspective, that said we cannot expect market history to repeat itself in similar ways, because we live in a very different environment than a decade or two ago.

    To Be Ahead of the Curve, you'd need to feel the market pulse and look for red flags and be ahead in understanding the emerging market narrative. And this is what I attempt to do here in this thread, To Be Ahead of the Curve as much as possible in the Time the Market approach to investing/trading , staying in the better part of the market when it is safe to do so and being out of the worse part of the market when it is not so.

    Well, as for Graham below, he was so bullish during the Trump presidency and now so bearish during the Biden administration. Not surprisingly, recent Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey found that consumer sentiment amongst Republicans have plunged since the end of Trump presidency while slightly lower amongst Dems. Jim Rickards and the entire Bill Bonner crew are in the same camp, been pessimistic about the economy and markets and bullish on gold for many years now, but now doubling down on their pessimism because it is a Dem led Government.

    I read and listen to many "experts" out there but I form my own views from culmination of these exposure , as I always think it is best not to entirely rely on a single source of "truth". At the end of the day, understanding the evolving market relationships and observing price behaviour and market psychology and emerging market narratives influence my views on what I believe portends ahead. So far that has worked for me. For instance, I am the first to map out in early days that BTC was stealing Gold's lunch and you heard me say this many times on this thread. That was the nail in the coffin for me to exit the gold trade. It turned out to be the truth as market participants were redeeming their Gold ETF to pour into BTC ETF and BTC itself as recently revealed, but to know that only after you have read it is already too late.

    If you followed Ciovacco's video I posted, he had shown many midcap and IWM charts looking very healthy , indicating that they look sound from a technical perspective but when you see that straight line up and massive divergence , one should get wary and nervous about its overextendedness rather than stay complacent until the technicals turn for the worse (technicals will tell you to stay put until we see affirmation of a bearish reversal). Yes, sure that overextendedness can continue a bit further out, but as I said, is that the last 10% you want to try to gain at a possible expense of losing 30-50%. Why do I say 30-50%? Well, because microcaps tend to go south very quickly in the order of 10% or more in a single day and most market participants would not want to sell immediately, because they hope it goes away,  only for the second and third day to bite more and before long thats 30%. Then you won't want to sell it. Then thats when you get 50% down. I have been through it myself.


    From Graham Summers

    The Bloodbath is Here... What Comes Next?
    The bloodbath I’ve been talking about for the last few days finally hit yesterday. The S&P 500 dropped almost 2.5%, while the NASDAQ fell over 3.5%.
    The big question now is whether the selling is over… or if things are just starting to get warmed up.


    Unfortunately, it is likely that things are just starting to get warmed up.

    As I noted earlier this week, Tesla (TSLA) is one of the key market leaders for the rally. Not only is it EXTREMELY popular with Wall Street, but it is also EXTREMELY popular with individual/retail investors.

    As such TSLA shares are a GREAT leading indicator for the broader market.

    TSLA has taken out its 50-day moving average and stayed there. This opens the door to the 200-DMA, which is down near $500 per share.

    This opens the door for a similar move for the stock market as a whole.
    The NASDAQ doesn’t have much support until you get to just under 12,000.

    For the S&P 500 it’s just over 3,500.


    Whether we grind our way lower to that point or enter a free-fall, remains to be seen. But the odds GREATLY favor the next 10% for stocks being DOWN instead of up.
 
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