I'm of the opinion that eventually due to rising real yields, inflation and a recovering economy in the USA, combined with Biden - who I don't think will apply the pressure to the Fed which we saw in the Trump era - that interest rates will rise.
My humble opinion is that interest rates have been the underlying cause of a fair number of market crashes in the past few years. I need to see how IR played out in the 2001 tech smash, but I'm fairly sure rising interest rates have predecessed every major market movement (see graph).
Do you have an opinion on the matter? If so, what's your crystal ball plug for the IR that will begin to cause a decent sell off?
My current opinion is that once the Fed agrees to begin lifting rates in 2023 (as they've said on CNBC they won't lift until 2023) - I give it less than a year or maybe 2-3% cash rate before the debt burden collapses the markets.
