Notice in the Table below the past 4 periods of Short Term Opportunity Investing.
They end around the 20% mark (i.e after rising 20%) and the start of the rally to its end has been around 5 months. We are now over 20% and is now in our 5th month ! Very uncanny resemblance.
Mark Twain said history does not always repeat itself but often rhymes.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 0 S&P500 Duration (months) What STOIS (Short Term Opportunity Investing) did 1 14 Aug 2017 2419 2 22 Jan 2018 2877 18.9% 5 Tech Boom Engaged 3 5 Feb 2018 2605 -9.5% End of Tech Boom Exit a week prior and a week after 4 5 31 Dec 2018 2448 6 29 April 2019 2946 20.3% 5 2018 Xmas nightmare recovery Slight late engagement 7 28 May 2019 2738 -7.1% End of Rally-inverted yield curve Exit upon inverted yield curve 8 9 19 Aug 2019 2823 10 10 Feb 2020 3382 19.8% 5.75 Post-Trade War Rally Sidelined -no engagement 11 23 Mar 2020 2217 -34.4% COVID crash Avoided crash and stood by Bear camp longer than should 12 13 26 Oct 2020 3185 14 5 Feb 2021 3887 22.0% 3 Vaccine/Biden Win Boom Engaged and Timely Exit 15 ? ?? ?? Next Notable Correction?
Bond Yield Fears?Staying Close Watch
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