....a test of tenacity. We have much to learn from our Olympic swimmers.
....lets not forget that a protracted NSW lockdown (without an immediate hard lockdown to squash the virus) will almost mean fewer of our Australians can return home and return safely.
Updated modelling from the Burnet Institute warns that Australia may never achieve herd immunity and the country will need to live with restrictions indefinitely.
The report, released on Friday, warns that the delta variant of COVID-19 is so infectious that even high rates of vaccination may be insufficient to achieve protection from the virus.
The modelling is consistent with other academic models that have been released looking at the level of vaccine coverage that will be needed to enable a return to life without lockdowns and pernicious restrictions.
The same models have also been looking at the level of vaccination needed to enable international reopening.
Academic models have suggested vaccine coverage of between 80 to 90 per cent of the population is required.
National Cabinet is due to consider later today the Doherty Institute’s modelling together with Treasury modelling showing the economic impacts of continued restrictions.
Economic models have suggested, not surprisingly, that short sharp lockdowns are preferable to longer lockdowns.
Middle-level restrictions and lighter lockdowns have more than double the economic cost of short, stringent lockdowns, according to new modelling from Australian National University.
That modelling found the economic cost of a short, tough lockdown was estimated to be $17.4 billion, compared with $41.2 billion for a longer but less strict lockdown.
The Burnet report is an update on previous modelling.
“Multiple models have shown that the combination of imperfect protection against infection (60-80%) and emerging more infectious variants means that Australia, and other countries globally, are unlikely to achieve herd immunity, even with high (80-90%) vaccine coverage,” the Burnet report said.
When Australia reopens its borders, the authors warn there could be “thousands” of deaths, even in a population with high vaccination rates, if there was no public health response to an outbreak.
The authors say that “light restrictions”, including masks, working from home and density limits would need to be regularly imposed to bring outbreaks under control.
“Without herd immunity, the ongoing introduction of cases means that outbreaks will continue to occur. If international quarantine is eased, this creates a choice between living with some restrictions or frequently taking restrictions on/off.”
