Its Over

Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑

If you want to interpret my opinions as meaning they are right or wrong from a short timeframe, then that’s your prerogative. When I opined that the markets would correct in early 2020 saying virtually every day since Nov 2019, I was wrong short term on the day to day basis and yes eventually I was right , same thing with start of 2022 I cautioned that we could be in for a repeat of 2020 in a smaller version …as for oil and energy all I am cautioning is that I do not foresee a sustainable high energy price when we eventually see demand destruction via the forthcoming recession …and two, the sheer volatility makes it hard to be on the right foot. Who knows what happens with this war? It could get to $200 it could also get to $80…too dependent on war outcomes.
You don’t need to reply. If you must so dislike what I posted I would wish you would ignore this thread.

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Coal and oil demand is not going anywhere but up. Just remember oil got to $90 per barrel even before the Ukraine war started and countries started putting sanctions on Russia. You say this time is no different, has there ever been a time countries have had to reopen their coal-fired power plants because of supply issues? This was happening before the war. So not only is demand going up, but the supply isn't there. Therefore prices must inevitably go up.

You have said "I completely missed the late 2019 run-up prior to the virus coming out of China. I didnt see the March low, I think no one did and badly beaten on the Beta BBOZ/BBUS."

"And to the bears out there, I closed out my BBOZ and BBUS yesterday, and will probably regret in the short term. Ironically, what I thought would serve to protect me turned out to be amongst my biggest losers. We can only learn."

Yep you bought BBOZ and BBUS in April 2020 which you made big losses.

You also said "When I stuck too long with my bearish views even after the markets turned around in April continuing with my hold on BBOZ and BBUS was a big lesson...I gave gold enough time to shine after that major Sept correction but every week thereafter proved to be a detractor to my portfolio. Seeing fund flows into BTC at the expense of Gold and its inability to correlate inversely with equities were last straws that caused me to abandon the gold trade until we see a change in sentiment.The vaccine narrative generated positivism and few want to be associated with gold under increased positivism. And the stimulus narrative has not benefited Gold but only BTC, not yet anyway.Lesson learnt, despite having a conviction, don't get too fixated."

Yep the market basically recovered all its losses in a matter of 6 months. Most smart investors would've made substantial gains had they bought basically anything at the low in April. Instead you bought BBOZ and BBUS. Gold stocks did have a small run, but that fizzled out pretty quickly.

You said it yourself, don't get too fixated. Have your stop losses, follow the trends.