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BHP Stock Price and Chart — ASX:BHP — TradingView
Looking at the LT BHP chart, you can see an almost 8 year bull from 1999 to Oct 2007, then it fell off sharply then after a brief new peak in March 2011, went on to make new lows in Jan 2016, literally went nowhere for slightly over 8 years.
Since Jan 2016, we have had a good 5+ year run that peaked in July 2021 and now the chart is showing ominous sign that a break down is imminent. The question is whether it resembles a move down like from July 2021 or a point similar to July 2008 just prior to the onset of a prolonged winter bear?
In the macro context as posted in the prior posts, it does look to me more like the 5+ year run is running out of steam and the latter view would probably have more credence.
It serves as a reminder that BHP is still up 6.1% YTD while we have seen most stocks and indices in bear territory. BHP has a very strong support at $40 (5 times it held at that point) so a breach of that level would see it fall hard quite quickly IMO. And with iron ore price on the backfoot on recession fears, I believe the breach is very soon.
In a bear market, eventually every stock and sector would not be left unscathed. Just a question of when and the degree of pullback. Denial and procrastination will likely result in missed opportunity (to get out of harm's way and to lock in gains) , as a Bird in Hand is worth Two in the Bush. That said, it is merely my opinion and everyone needs to decide on their own accord.
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