...The price you pay for a stock matters no matter how good you perceive the stock to be.
...There is only one major reason for a stock to defy gravity when the US market finally corrects - an ability to grow its business sustainably DESPITE a changing global economic landscape for the worse. I can't think of any ASX stocks that can truly do that. Our ASX stocks have no moat.
At a 20x P/E multiple the S&P 500 is worth 5500 in 2025. At 18x that level drops to 4900, and at 16x the fair value is 4400. According to my Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) math, the correct forward multiple is around 16-17x, suggesting that the upside potential is limited to around 4500.
