You can't make this up: Prediction markets now show a 36% chance of ZERO interest rate cuts in 2024, according to @Kalshi
. To put this in perspective, 4 months ago there was a ~3% chance of no rate cuts in 2024. The base case has gone from 6 rate cuts to 1 rate cut this year. There is just a 31% chance of 2 or more interest rate cuts this year. In other words, there is a higher chance of NO cuts than 2 OR MORE cuts. This could be the fastest shift in Fed expectations of all time. Truly incredible.
