Its Over, page-44

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    Markets go up and down in the short term in an increasingly volatile manner- represents a good short term trade for the brave souls.

    But what about the longer term? From what is happening out there, can't be too encouraging. The Dow is now pricing in some risks due to uncertainties from an impending trade war. But international trade dislocation is not going to happen overnight- it could take a year or two. We live in a very interconnected world today and Jim Rickards made an interesting point that any downturn in international trade created through the uncertainties (via Trump's policies) or dislocation in international trade could cause a potential sovereign risk problem for emerging market debt in particular Turkey (see below) that may bring about a scenario similar to the Asian Financial crisis of 1997.

    https://www.marketsandmoney.com.au/turkey-will-ground-zero-next-global-debt-crisis/2018/02/22/

    Some stocks (speculative) are meant for short to medium term trade and if you had it wrong (on the wrong side of trade), a long term hold could well portend even worse outcomes if such scenarios such as the above pan out. For these sort of stocks, IMO they are only as good as when you bought them (s0 if you bought them cheap you can still make money out of a dud stock (provided you would have sold them before they became one) but if you bought them at their highs or near highs, you'd need to properly evaluate ahead if these stocks will actually deliver to avoid a "Yowie moment").

    In the meantime, it remains a watch if Trump's 'art of the deal' can pull it off with China and North Korea. He is bold and willing to tread paths no prior post-war Presidents were willing to do (especially now in the company of more hawkish advisors). We will have to hope he can pull it off unscathed/
 
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