Its Over

Originally posted by 1ronnie ↑

Markets go up and down in the short term in an increasingly volatile manner- represents a good short term trade for the brave souls.

But what about the longer term? From what is happening out there, can't be too encouraging. The Dow is now pricing in some risks due to uncertainties from an impending trade war. But international trade dislocation is not going to happen overnight- it could take a year or two. We live in a very interconnected world today and Jim Rickards made an interesting point that any downturn in international trade created through the uncertainties (via Trump's policies) or dislocation in international trade could cause a potential sovereign risk problem for emerging market debt in particular Turkey (see below) that may bring about a scenario similar to the Asian Financial crisis of 1997.

https://www.marketsandmoney.com.au/turkey-will-ground-zero-next-global-debt-crisis/2018/02/22/

Some stocks (speculative) are meant for short to medium term trade and if you had it wrong (on the wrong side of trade), a long term hold could well portend even worse outcomes if such scenarios such as the above pan out. For these sort of stocks, IMO they are only as good as when you bought them (s0 if you bought them cheap you can still make money out of a dud stock (provided you would have sold them before they became one) but if you bought them at their highs or near highs, you'd need to properly evaluate ahead if these stocks will actually deliver to avoid a "Yowie moment").

In the meantime, it remains a watch if Trump's 'art of the deal' can pull it off with China and North Korea. He is bold and willing to tread paths no prior post-war Presidents were willing to do (especially now in the company of more hawkish advisors). We will have to hope he can pull it off unscathed/

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https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/when-markets-dip-dont-drop-out
The above is an interesting resource link for those (mainstream view) arguing that the long term investor who does not get in and out of the market will be the winner in the end. The chart is based on the index as opposed to individually held stocks so is only true if you hold an index ETF.
I agree but only IF
(1) You hold the right fundamentally sound stocks but even so called deemed growth good stocks could have its fundamentals and outlook changed over time (Facebook may not be the good growth stock in the coming year(s) I postulate, Ramsay Health not as good as it once stood), not so for specky stocks - only one I can think that will be best is CSL
(2) It assumes that after a crash, the investor never gets back in. IMO not knowing how to get back in is just as bad as not knowing how to get out. So most people just hold on because they are bad or afraid to make mistake of jumping in and out and that's what mainstream experts tell us not to do. But what if you are in your 60s flushed with cash and allocated substantially in the market as TD pays pittance and next 5 years don't get you back to where it is now?