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ddzx

37,911 Posts.

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04/04/18

17:13

Post #: 32220445
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Originally posted by 1ronnie ↑

The ASX index may be doing ok but increasing visible pain across the smallcap sector (I track that for the tech stocks under my table)- from experience I knew this was going to happen when things started to look bad in early Feb, that's why I started this thread to implicitly warn about what could potentially happen to ********* when exuberance disappears. Doesn't matter how great the stock potential is, potential is 2-3 years away if it makes that far, in the meantime the barn is burning and you don't want to be in it, survival is key to fight another day. I'd say more pain ahead in store especially in ********* due to (1) flight to quality in difficult and challenging market environment (2) ASX witch hunt adversely affects confidence (3) minimal announcements (likely to be more option announcements to management) to spruik sp (if this is what some management has been doing) in view of (2) (4) possible more CR underway (5) forthcoming 4C showing no tangible revenue materialisation (why wait for this?- see what happens when AXP announced its results) (6) poor sentiment and poor liquidity drives sp down faster as selling orders outweighs buy orders (7) possibility of Black Swan events on the external front beyond anyone's control. Possibly you would understand now what I meant by "doing nothing is doing something" (if you didn't sell, you would have seen those gains gone or would be further underwater). If you were holding a CSL quality stock, that would have been a different story.

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i shorted CSL at $164.50 and PE ratio of 38. despite its quality, it should not trade over a PE of 30 (imo)

PE ratio history below. Note: the PE of 39 in 2016 did not last long.

Last edited by ddzx: 04/04/18
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0 Great analysis

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