1. Both Gold and BTC have been down since 23 Feb, Gold down by 4.1% and BTC by 2.3%
2, This in (1) despite a modest 0.8% rise in the DXY, so the DXY is not to be blamed, not yet at least
3. AUD Gold is still on the decline despite a sharp fall in the Aussie (one of the sharpest in recent times)
4. Gold/GDX ratio surging 5.4% since 23 Feb, suggesting market participants dumping gold stocks more than gold itself and the ratio has been the highest since 30 Oct. The ratio suggest market participants may be moving out of gold stocks ahead of what they could possibly see as further falls in Gold. Note that the ratio stood at almost 68x on 23 March. When equities are in trouble, gold equities tend to be considered as equities more than gold , which is why we got to 68x on 23 March.
5. BTC rate of increase relative to Gold as expressed in BTC/Gold is seen to be struggling from 17 Feb, so dont be surprised to see its forthcoming retracement. A move below $44.5k spells trouble. BTC's weekend performance so far shows a lacklustre ability to scale higher
6. If this is the end of BTC exuberance in the near term, it does not augur well if it reflects market enthusiasm and concerns that could pan out next week; remember Elon just tied the equities fortune somewhat to BTC (as did JP Morgan - so just how exposed are the banks to BTCs and cryptos? Damn if the banks start speculating their cheap money and in the process put the financial system in jeopardy!)
7. If BTC's run ends, it must be attributable to a catalyst. That catalyst has to be regulation. The article below is one clear sign that there will be more regulation coming or on the way. For all we know, BTC's big run may be fueled by the crooks doing money laundering on a big scale. Be forewarned, BTC's rally may be done now- question is how well BTC can remain credible to sustain mainstream interest to preserve its value. And question is would that be in the interest of the US Govt in the longer run looking to introduce the digital dollar?
Column 1
Column 2
Column 3
Column 4
Column 5
Column 6
Column 7
0
23 March 20
30 October
5 Feb 21
17 Feb 21
23 Feb 21
28 Feb 21
1
GOLD (USD)
$ 1,655
$ 1,880
$ 1,795
$ 1,792
$1,807
$ 1,732
2
GOLD (AUD)
$ 2,639
$ 2,673
$ 2,362
$ 2,312
$2,289
$ 2,252
3
DXY (USD INDEX)
91.53
90.65
90.18
90.93
4
BITCOIN (BTC) (USD)
$ 6,234
$ 13,560
$37,480
$49,943
$ 47,532
$46,438
5
BITCOIN (BTC) (AUD)
$ 10,205
$ 19,365
$48,193
$64,533
$ 60,031
$60,713
6
GDX
$ 24.37
$ 37.49
$ 33.79
$ 34.13
$34.21
$ 31.11
7
BTC/GOLD (USD)
3.77
7.21
20.88
27.87
26.31
26.81
8
BTC/GOLD (AUD)
3.87
7.24
20.40
27.91
26.23
26.96
9
GOLD/GDX
67.91
50.15
53.12
52.51
52.81
55.67
10
24/9 to 30/10
4/2 to 5/2
5/2 to 17/2
17/2 to 23/2
17/2 to 23/3
11
GOLD (USD)
0.2%
-2.2%
-0.2%
0.8%
-4.1%
12
GOLD (AUD)
0.9%
-1.7%
-2.1%
-1.0%
-1.6%
13
BITCOIN (BTC) (USD)
26.3%
-0.2%
33.3%
-4.8%
-2.3%
14
BITCOIN (BTC) (AUD)
27.2%
-2.1%
33.9%
-7.0%
1.1%
15
GOLD/GDX
3.4%
0.2%
-1.2%
0.6%
5.4%
SEC Accuses Crypto Brokers of Deliberately Sidestepping AML Laws
Author: Jimmy Aki
Last Updated: 27 February 2021
With Bitcoin gaining more acceptance globally due to the recent price rally, many global financial institutions are stepping into the crypto game. Apparently, there are some details they are overlooking, according to a draft released by the United States’ financial watchdog. Division Of Examinations Issues “Risk Alert”
In a Friday publication, the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Division of Examinations made a draft for investment managers and crypto-facing companies on how they will regulate the rapidly emerging digital economy.
The Division of Examinations, which is a staff office with separate responsibilities from the SEC, made a “risk alert” that shows the compliance practices the SEC is happy with.
In the document, the agency formerly known as the Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations said some broker-dealers were clearly disregarding the anti-money laundering regulations, and some firms were issuing securities without proper registration.
The division said the “risk alert” was released to draw the highlighted industry practitioners’ attention to what it will be looking out for.
The areas the agency said were of concern were portfolio management that properly assesses and manages risk, concise recordkeeping, custodial services for the safeguarding of digital assets, and disclosures to investors.
To the SEC, investment advisors and broker-dealers were being negligent in the listed areas.
Future examinations will see broker-dealers, investment advisors, exchanges, and transfer agents coming under the litmus test for anti-money laundering, the publication reveals. Noting that digital assets’ pseudonymous nature has been thorny to deal with. The regulator also revealed that many firms were not taking steps to know if they were dealing with criminals or other bad actors under the US Treasury’s Specially Designated Nationals list.
In its “National Securities Exchange” section, the document claimed that some firms were operating as securities exchanges without registering to be one. It noted that most of these exchanges traded crypto-assets without prior approval from the agency. The SEC’s Ambivalence With Exchanges
The SEC has been particularly aggressive towards cryptocurrency exchange for a long time. In a 2018 routing of the exchanges, the agency successfully stifled the growth of initial coin offerings (ICO), which allowed crypto-facing companies to raise millions in investor fees before rolling out digital tokens.
It also ended Telegram’s plan to create a digital token on a new network in 2019. The SEC incessantly haranguing has also seen many payments companies backing out of deals with crypto-focused businesses. Although still in the court, Ripple Labs’ case has seen the digital payment provider lose some of its prominent customers. US payment giant MoneyGram suspended its arrangement with Ripple to use its on-demand liquidity (ODL) tool to facilitate cross-border payments due to the SEC lawsuit.
Although Ripple has said the arrangement with MoneyGram was still in place, the blockchain firm has also seen its XRP tokens delisted from major crypto exchanges following the legal bout with the SEC.
