Actually I have been thinking about how you are doing , after all your resilience sits at back of my conscience about bailing out altogether. Just because I have been right (Or more right than wrong) does not mean that I could be right in all respect. As an example, it may be that a single stock that I have just offloaded could go on to put on 10-20x gains from here notwithstanding what the market does and that single one alone can well make up for large losses elsewhere in the portfolio. The problem is you can only tell in hindsight , during the tech boom of 2017, everyone thought the BIG and GSW were such stocks. Complete offload ensures that whatever happens I have done well, and if one were to do that, we must not procrastinate, and I indicate previously my moves can be very swift. Obviously given the rather significant losses we have now , it is somewhat a harder decision especially when we look back at what we made earlier. I have been through this many times that is why I called out 2 weeks ago to start pulling the trigger to get out. But as I indicated people tend to regret more missing out a stock they prematurely sold that went on to become a multibagger, than avoiding a 60-70pc loss on a stock they took preemptive action to offload before the carnage begins. In all probabilities as I indicated from my analysis of my decision posted last week is only 5pc or 1 in 20 stocks make the cut to be the microcap stock that should not be sold even regardless.
But there is one thing I believe everyone can be unanimous about, that is the US market is expensive , one would now have to question just how much more expensive can it get when the very elixir supporting its expensiveness, I.e interest rates is increasingly becoming a torn in its posterior. This mania is like never we have ever seen which makes everyone so complacent that it will never be left to end , this time is different somehow contradicts centuries of conventional wisdom about boom bust and manias. I still read my stock newsletters saying that we should control our emotions in investing , that is true but newsletters live on optimism re markets if they are going to make any business out of it. If the US markets were not in stratosphere, staying in for longer mainstream mantra would be reasonable consideration, that folks is not what business commentators usually want to talk about, just because the markets have been able to defy valuation metrics does not mean that is in perpetuity , at some point it may have just pushed its luck too far.
The other thing markets seem to be absolutely sure is that we are out of the woods when it comes to this pandemic. I sure hope so, for the sake of all our wellbeing as well as for the markets. While we are trending that way, the manner in which markets have taken it for granted is what we ought to be more concern of.
Hope you make some astute decisions to both protect and prosper .
