It's too early to tell right now, but if this is going to turn into a major 4 year cycle low then price will break and close below the 4 year cycle uptrend line.
4000 on the SPX becomes a realistic target.
If this scenario plays out there is going to be some kind of geopolitical shock to the system that will crash the stock market over the next 3-4 weeks.
That shock 4 years ago was COVID. This time it's either likely to be a major escalation of the war cycle or maybe a major crash in the bond market.
It could also be something completely out of left field that no one sees at the moment, but the market starts to anticipate. The first confirmation will be if the SPX breaks the Apr. 19th low.
A 200+ point down day would also be a big red flag.
