...will Martis parabolic curve spell doom for the Dow just as it did for BTC?
https://twitter.com/great_martis/status/1407602237715582978?s=20
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https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/DJ-DJI/
One could really argue that we are in a structural bull market that dates back to Jan 2009 from 6909 to 33,945 today and that the COVID fall was not actually a bear but a serious correction in a longer term bull.
The last time we saw this was from Oct87 after the 87 crash with a bull market that stretched 12 years from 1473 to 11,529 just before the dot com crash, all in all a 7.8x fold rise over 12 years.
If we use the same period of 12 years, we should expect the bull market to end in 2021 or 2022 (12+2009) but the bull so far has yielded a gain of 4.9x (from 6909 to 33,945). So the bulls will argue that we could see further rise from here and if a 7.8x fold increase is replicated, we could even see somewhere close to 54,000 - of course that sounds far fetched and unbelievable.
However, comparison of performance across the two timeframes are not equal, the world economy is not as robust as it was in the 90s and the global debt overhang is substantially higher. But the 12 year timeframe nonetheless is a reminder that this bull market is nearing its end.
So what happened after we had that 7.8x fold rise from Oct 87 to Dec99? We had 9 years of the Dow going absolutely nowhere. If one had bought the Dow on Dec 99, 7 years later you would have made just over 20% only to lose all of it and more in the GFC crash in 2008.
When this bull market ends, we may enter a similar period of Going Nowhere. And this would be a Real WINTER, because we may get nowhere in stocks, in property nor holding cash while inflation could be a lot higher. This is why it so important that we do not get crushed in the next market crash that is about to unfold within the next 1 year....and why we need to preserve capital intact to weather the coming winter of deflation or worse stagflation. Sobering outlook but nonetheless a prospect we must entertain given Where We're At.
