Its Over

Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑

Read interesting stories about young individuals in their 20s planning to retire within 10 years or less jumping on the FIRE bandwagon, FIRE an acronym for Financial Independence Retire Early. All based on gaining maximum returns and building asset wealth via property and share market leverage in this asset inflation boom.

Few things to say about this. IMO it’s a shame to be so early to yearn for retirement and setting the pursuit of focussing solely on the money instead of building a credible careers , interests beyond money , developing social networks and contributing to industry and society at large. Second this reflects the times of today, people want to make quick money and retire early , if it is ever so easy. The risks they take invariably means that if and when the big correction comes, not only would they be set back big time but they could go

out without a Plan B because they have no fall back on a good career and would be ill equipped to get a job when the economy is in recession.

Finally the money they thought to be enough is never usually is , because they never imagine we could get into high inflationary economy.

But I am also aware that young people are being roped into FIRE not by choice but because in the current environment it is difficult to get a job and they are too impressionable from social media that people can get very successful investing.

Let me fill you in on the reality if you think you can make a living solely doing this, you can get lucky for awhile but achieving success consistently is not an easy thing , nothing like the monthly paycheck working full time. And secondly, if you have followed this thread long enough, I have argued that the markets now are just about as good as it gets , and not get deluded that we can extrapolate past market performance into the years ahead. All it takes unfortunately is one big market rout and those on FIRE would be scrambling back looking for an alternate path to livelihood.

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Agree with this. Unfortunately I believe central banks around the globe, and national governments have collectively turned a blind eye to making the necessary and difficult (at times) decisions NOW to avert the inevitable day of reckoning ultimately arriving. Short term decisions showering economies in free money is what will win elections. Winning elections is everything isn’t it?!

Free money under the guise of covid is driving up asset prices, creating a false sense of normal which is fueling reckless behaviours. People don’t care about debt. They don’t know what inflation is. Interests rates are always low, right?!. Money is cheap and making profits, and more profits is so easy. They can borrow money to buy more assets, more houses which is driving prices up and the cycle continues. Banks hand out the money and Governments relax the regulations. Then fuel prices further with first home grants. Some people have 10 properties and some of them vacant! No wonder we have a supply problem.

Yet, no wage growth. Near zero interests rates and no inflation. It must rebalance eventually. It must. And with it will be carnage many, many couldn’t possibly imagine.

Governments and central banks turn a blind eye to the problem they collectively can see. They’ve failed us. And ‘we’re’ too naive to want to know anything about it.

It can’t last.