its risky to anticipate further qe, page-12

It may be risky to anticipate future inflation - whether there's more QE or not.

There are some interesting charts at the site below:

http://www.macrotrends.org/1340/gold-and-the-cpi-10-year-trend-analysis

(chart annotations are mine)



Note that in the 1970's during the previous gold spike, the CPI had been steadily rising for a decade or more and reached 8% before gold really started taking off, finally topping out at around 13%. This time around gold is already a decade into its move but inflation is yet to show any sign of following.

If the Fed were to take further action now while there is abundant spare capacity in the economy it may take many more years before inflationary effects were felt in the real economy (if ever). There is also the presumption among goldbugs that the Fed would not move to counter inflation if it did arise. Clearly they have taken drastic action in the past which is why the gold price collapsed as quickly as it rose.