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Yep - been on EUR/USD for a while - just slowly walking my stop down with the price.....
Controversy over stress test methodology that's been released before the results.
I have to stay up to hear how it's taken.
Dax, FTSE, Dow etc still bullish, but currencies ready to move on the news.
News: (From GFT platform)
VIX UP MODESTLY to just over 25% with stocks down but level hardly distressing vs May spike high to 48%. Leak of EU stress test assumptions underscores today's risk of whippy markets as investors & traders face overload of info/data to digest in a few hours ahead of weekend. Recall, US regulators release method/assumptions of tests well ahead of results disclosure. Key also going forward will be how markets view EU govts plans to deal with those banks that fail test and need to recapitalise.
[CEBS HEADLINES NOW OUT], so this looks official and indeed Reuters reports that details of the [STRESS TEST METHODOLOGY], ie the benchmarks applied, have been released earlier than the results, which are still scheduled for 16.00GMT. Aside from the details already out on Bbg, EU regulators and the ECB have set the scenario for a double dip and a 20% downturn in equities, with sovereign downgrades of up to 4 notches on securities held. The probability of this combination of factors occurring is set at 20 years and the authorities also say the tests are harder than those sat by US banks last year. The markets still not happy with what they are seeing, and the fact that only the trading books are being stress tested seems to be the disappointment, ie the exams are effectively splitting the banks into 2.
