It's the oil price stupid!

Apologies in advance for this negative but IMO valid post which relates to all the oil explorers, not just FAR.

Despite the miilions of words written here, the unique posts of a big player (FARJOY) plus the great efforts of JP, Aqua and many others, the competent management of Cath & Co & the stunning success on two Senegal wells, what has happened?

The ASX graph shows that the average punter got into FAR during the last 12 months at around 4 cents & if still holding is now sitting on a 200% profit at 12 cents.

If this is what stunning success looks like then it makes me wonder if it's now worth the risk in these junior explorers given the current oil price (see article at end of this post).

What will happen to FAR now?  More good news from SNE-1 & share price up to 15 cents?  Commerciality confirmed - 18 cents?

It's not exactly stunning Disallowed profits is it?

Yet FAR is the best of them right now:

PCL now back in it's box below 3 cents.

PVD trying to keep it's head above 50 cents when it should be starting it's pre-spud run to 80 cents or more.

The major producers have had their share prices fall (BG Group down 20% since July),  the mid-tiers like Tullow have been hammered and now questioning the cost vs risk of further (offshore) exploration.

It's so unfortunate that just as FAR finally have their day in the sun & PVD finally about to spud their big target prospect in Morocco, that the frackking yanks have to spoil the party with excess shale production, compounded by the Saudis trying hold onto market share & OPEC doing f**k all to help put a floor under all this!

I took my FAR profits & ran.
I took my PCL profits & ran.
I hold PVD, if they hit oil in a few months and oil is still below $80 a barrel, then I'll take my profits & run!
.............................................................................................................................................

13 November 2014 Last updated at 20:41
Brent crude oil price falls below $80 a barrel
US oil production has been booming as a result of fracking in places such as North Dakota and Oklahoma

The price of Brent crude oil has fallen $3.60 - 4.4% - to $77.52, its lowest level for four years.
The benchmark US crude oil price is also at a four-year low, after losing $2.57 to close at $74.28.
The price has fallen sharply since the summer and is 30% below its June price.
The drop comes as traders believe members of the Opec oil exporting countries, which control about 40% of world oil exports. will not cut production.
Opec's 12 member countries will meet later this month to discuss the global oil market.
Lower oil prices typically prompt Opec nations, which include the biggest oil exporting nation in the world, Saudi Arabia, to rein back output in order to limit supply and boost prices and income.
Most need higher oil prices to fund rising government spending.
But recent comments by oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait suggest the group is unlikely to agree to a cut.
The US energy department said this week that it expected low fuel prices to last into next year.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30033258

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